Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
