Seven years ago, it took just eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position & Settled Issues
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- First, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past
This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger and A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
