A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
